A Second Superpower Falls

After a decades long effort to undermine Western democracies, Vladimir Putin is now sitting back, crossing his legs, and remembering the old Napoleon’s adage: never interrupt an enemy when he’s making a mistake. And maybe even wondering: can Russia outlast Western democracy itself?

When I was young, there was some kind of certainty. The certainty that two major superpowers ruled the world. The United States of America on one side (the brilliant good guys) and the Soviet Union on the other (the cruel bad guys). This certainty wasn’t necessarily a good thing. There was a good chance, a frightening chance, that we would all die in a tragic smoldering nuclear war. In fact, in my lifetime, as it turned out, unknown to most at that point, we were very close to nuclear war at least a couple of times. And the fear was always there, way worse than the feeling some have today that we will parish from climate change catastrophes.

When Mikhail Gorbachov came to power in 1985, a refreshing new start seemed possible. Maybe a new peaceful détente, less dangerous. That the Berlin wall would collapse withing four years and the Soviet Union would collapse within six years was still completely unthinkable. And yet, it happened. The good guys won.

What was equally unthinkable at the time, and maybe even very recently, was that American democracy and American values could collapse in the same way. And yet, just before our eyes, we are seeing the collapse of a second superpower. Curiously enough, ironically enough, at the hands of its old foe. Putin often refers to the fall of the Soviet Union as the worst tragedy of the twentieth century, and he’s doing whatever he can to recover the global power he once knew as a KGB officer. To do so, hurting America and the West is high in his priorities. It’s very doubtful that Donald Trump would have won his first election, let alone the second, without the dutiful help of Putin’s Russia.

Obviously, many people, including myself, underestimated the decades long decay of American values within American society, which is now undoubtedly plagued by old ghosts: racism, religious fanaticism, nationalistic isolationism, blind cultural and social defaultism, economic hubris, ignorance and censorship, the degrading arrogance of empires. All terrible things that are contrary to the most democratic and liberal American core values, and which Americans had been able to fight off for some time – with mixed success in the past, and now utter failure.

Whatever helped Trump climb to power, though, the fact is that he is systematically and effectively undermining USA’s superpower status, which means we are now witnessing, to my utmost surprise, the collapse of a second superpower from within. Trump is doing brutal and pernicious violence to the system, and this will have lasting effects on America’s strength. He has inspired enemies and rivals to action and convinced allies to stay away and fend for themselves. He has alienated friendly partners, like Canada or Japan, and emboldened tyrants and dictators, like North Korea’s or Iran’s.

Electing Donald Trump not once, but twice, is the worst single mistake America ever made.

Sometime in the past, I believed in Trickledown Economics. I believed that an economy would strive if investment surged and companies hired more people. That belief died in 2008, as banks were bailed out, quantitative easing led to flowing liquidity to the banks (not the economy at large), and no one was charged with any wrongdoing. Instead of an increase in investment and hiring, what we saw was companies buying back stock and saving themselves – enjoying the spoils of a major wealth transfer scheme and leading to increased inequality through the whole system.

Now, we are seeing something similar in the US. Trump’s tariffs represent the largest tax hike since 1968 (according to JP Morgan), and Trump’s corporate tax cuts are the largest in American history. An incredible wealth transfer scheme from the poorest to the richest.

Of course, the markets are loving it, not only because the scheme will increase their profits, but because they’re enjoying buying back their stock. However, they’re not hiring – knowing this is poor economic policy and will eventually lead to a downturn. And inflation is growing – so the engine of American economy, the American consumer, is being squeezed. The dollar is going down the drain, dumped all over the world. And nobody is buying US debt, as everybody seems to guess where the country is heading. It will not be pretty. It’s not pretty already, and American agriculture will be the first to suffer. It’s already suffering, in truth, with some saying it is crumbling under a ‘financial calamity’ (Reuters). Until the end of the year, and beyond, we’ll see it get worse and worse.

As I’ve written before, I believe that the biggest threats in the world today are old enemies: Aristocratic Thinking, Elitism and Corruption. And they fuel all other kinds of monsters: inequality, dwindling ethics, cronyism and nepotism, racism and xenophobia, inaction in face of Climate Change, Famine, Disease and Genocide, slow down of innovation and development, war, populism and cultish fanaticism. And, of course, Donald Trump is the poster child of Aristocratic Thinking, Elitism and Corruption.

It’s a pity. I believe the world needs a strong and effective United States of America. One that champions the Liberal Agenda enshrined in its Constitution. One that doesn’t stand on realpolitik and convenience, but on principle and democratic values. And now, as it is collapsing faster than we would ever imagine, we still hope it wakes up and rises from the ashes. And we hope Europe and its allies stand out and hold up, protecting democratic thinking, equality and solidarity.

As Winston Churchill would say, Americans usually do the right thing in the end, after exhausting every other option. I hope Donald Trump is only the latest option to be discarded, and I hope it is discarded in time. A fleeting hope… Trust, that fragile, essential, valuable gem, will take a long time to restore.